"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of small-scale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socio-economic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity

Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems

Landslides are socio-natural hazards. In Colombia, for example, these are the most frequent hazards. The interplay of climate change and the mostly informal growth of cities in landslide-prone areas increases the associated risks. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are essential for disaster risk reduction, but the monitoring component is often based on expensive sensor systems. This study presents a data-driven approach to localize landslide-prone areas suitable for low-cost and easy-to-use LEWS instrumentation, as well as to estimate the associated costs. The approach is exemplified in the landslide-prone city of Medellín, Colombia. A workflow that enables decision-makers to balance financial costs and the potential to protect exposed populations is introduced. To achieve this, city-level landslide susceptibility is mapped using data on hazard levels, landslide inventories, geological and topographic factors, and a random forest model. Then, the landslide susceptibility map is combined with a population density map to identify highly exposed areas. Subsequently, a cost function is defined to estimate the cost of LEWS monitoring sensors at the selected sites, using lessons learned from a pilot LEWS in Bello Oriente, a neighbourhood in Medellín. This study estimates that LEWS monitoring sensors could be installed in several landslide-prone areas with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person (roughly COP 23 000 to 209 000), improving the resilience of over 190 000 exposed individuals, 81 % of whom are located in precarious neighbourhoods; thus, the systems would particularly reduce the risks of a social group of very high vulnerability. The synopsis of all information allows us to provide recommendations for stakeholders on where to proceed with LEWS instrumentation. These are based on five different cost-effectiveness scenarios. This approach enables decision-makers to prioritize LEWS deployment to protect exposed populations while balancing the financial costs, particularly for those in precarious neighbourhoods. Finally, the limitations, challenges, and opportunities for the successful implementation of a LEWS are discussed.</p

"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster - Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of smallscale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socioeconomic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity.DFG/03G0666A-

Defining pathways to healthy sustainable urban development

Goals and pathways to achieve sustainable urban development have multiple interlinkages with human health and wellbeing. However, these interlinkages have not been examined in depth in recent discussions on urban sustainability and global urban science. This paper fills that gap by elaborating in detail the multiple links between urban sustainability and human health and by mapping research gaps at the interface of health and urban sustainability sciences. As researchers from a broad range of disciplines, we aimed to: 1) define the process of urbanization, highlighting distinctions from related concepts to support improved conceptual rigour in health research; 2) review the evidence linking health with urbanization, urbanicity, and cities and identify cross-cutting issues; and 3) highlight new research approaches needed to study complex urban systems and their links with health. This novel, comprehensive knowledge synthesis addresses issue of interest across multiple disciplines. Our review of concepts of urban development should be of particular value to researchers and practitioners in the health sciences, while our review of the links between urban environments and health should be of particular interest to those outside of public health. We identify specific actions to promote health through sustainable urban development that leaves no one behind, including: integrated planning; evidence-informed policy-making; and monitoring the implementation of policies. We also highlight the critical role of effective governance and equity-driven planning in progress towards sustainable, healthy, and just urban development

THE GLOBAL ISSUE "MEGA-URBANIZATION": AN UNSOLVABLE CHALLENGE FOR STAKEHOLDERS, RESEARCHERS AND RESIDENTS?

This study aims at discussing the complex, multi-dimensional issue of the global phenomenon of urbanization. Based on a theoretical review and discussion on the situation of cities, the causes, dimensions and consequences of urban growth the idea is to raise the main questions for future activities to meet this challenge. For it a pragmatic and holistic framework is proposed to systematize the manifold approaches and to stimulate discussions on this issue addressing inter- and transdisciplinary thinking

SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF INDIAN MEGA CITIES

Urbanization is arguably the most dramatic form of highly irreversible land transformation. While urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon, it is exceptionally dynamic in India, where unprecedented urban growth rates have occurred over the last 30 years. In this uncontrolled explosive situation city planning lacks of data and information to measure, monitor, understand urban sprawl processes. The analysis of such changes has become an important use of multitemporal remote sensing data. Using a time-series of Landsat data to classify the urban footprints since the 1970s enables detection of temporal and spatial urban sprawl, redensification and urban development in the explosively growing large urban agglomerations of the mega cities Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata in India. Combining gradient analysis with landscape metrics the spatiotemporal pattern of urbanization are quantified. Spatial parameters are the absolute areal growth, urbanization rates, built-up densities, landscape shape index, edge density, patch density, or largest patch index. The study aims to detect analogies and differences for spatial growth in Indian mega cities, cities in the same cultural area at about the same development stage regarding absolute population. The results paint a characteristic picture of spatial pattern gradients and landscape metrics of the three Indian mega cities. 1

Global Urbanization - Perspective from Space

Since a decade, more than half of the world’s population lives in cities. This trend is expected to be continued in the upcoming decades, transforming our world into an urban planet. Especially urban regions in Asia and Africa will experience tremendous urban growth. Earth observation data provide unique possibilities in urban research for analyzing global urbanization processes due to a wide spectrum of satellites such as by the European Copernicus Programme providing large-area satellite data for monitoring urban change processes. Besides, also on a local scale, high resolution satellite imagery provides invaluable information for characterizing the physical urban environment, allowing for a qualitative mapping of the state of urban neighborhoods in the context of urban poverty. This paper provides an overview on global urbanization processes, the data toolbox of satellites for their analysis and selected applications to demonstrate the usefulness of satellite images for urban research

Risk and space: modelling the accessibility of stroke centers using day- & nighttime population distribution and different transportation scenarios

Purpose Rapid accessibility of (intensive) medical care can make the difference between life and death. Initial care in case of strokes is highly dependent on the location of the patient and the traffic situation for supply vehicles. In this methodologically oriented paper we want to determine the inequivalence of the risks in this respect. Methods Using GIS we calculate the driving time between Stroke Units in the district of Münster, Germany for the population distribution at day- & nighttime. Eight different speed scenarios are considered. In order to gain the highest possible spatial resolution, we disaggregate reported population counts from administrative units with respect to a variety of factors onto building level. Results The overall accessibility of urban areas is better than in less urban districts using the base scenario. In that scenario 6.5% of the population at daytime and 6.8% at nighttime cannot be reached within a 30-min limit for the first care. Assuming a worse traffic situation, which is realistic at daytime, 18.1% of the population fail the proposed limit. Conclusions In general, we reveal inequivalence of the risks in case of a stroke depending on locations and times of the day. The ability to drive at high average speeds is a crucial factor in emergency care. Further important factors are the different population distribution at day and night and the locations of health care facilities. With the increasing centralization of hospital locations, rural residents in particular will face a worse accessibility situation